Posted on December 24, 2007 by Edward Cherlin in Hardware: Production, Laptops: XO-1

The question has been asked, whether the XO, as it went into manufacturing, was really ready for the children. In one way, that's like asking if your computer is fast enough, which is silly. No computer is fast enough for everything we want to do.

We can all agree that the XO isn't as fast as we could wish, but we can also consider another meaning of the phrase. The XO is certainly fast enough to provide an education. You can't even compare the possibilities with and without it. Similarly, there is no way the XO software could be finished.

We're talking about education here. There are no known limits to education, and good reason to suppose that there aren't any unknown limits either. But in the same way as speed, we can say that the software provided is working, and supports the mission.

olpc free music project
We wanna sing & dance!

The XO Laptop? Dayenu.

There is a Jewish song, sung every year at Passover, called Dayenu. This means, "It would have been enough for us."

In effect, it is the Jewish Thanksgiving song. If God had rescued the Jews from Egypt, and done nothing more, Dayenu. If he had fed them in the desert, Dayenu. If he had given them the Torah and nothing more, Dayenu. If he had brought them to the Promised Land, and nothing more ever again, Dayenu.

But, of course, God always does more. Including whacking them over the head when they don't get it. Be that as it may, when we look at the XO laptop, we can also say, Dayenu. It's $188, not $100, but Dayenu. If it didn't have Mary Lou Jepson's amazing screen, or her two-dollar clip-on microscope, it would have been enough to revolutionize education worldwide and lift multitudes out of poverty. If it didn't have the new less-toxic batteries, Dayenu. If they hadn't wrung out quite so much power drain, Dayenu. (They announced recently that they found the major bug preventing proper suspend-resume.)

And the same in software. Even if we didn't get Etoys, Squeak, Smalltalk relicensed under GPL, Dayenu. Even without the amazing Measure activity that turns the XO into a digital oscilloscope, Dayenu. And so on. If it were only a book reader with Internet access and a calculator, it would be revolutionary enough for a first cut. It's far more than that.

olpc sugar groups
Next year's Sugar groups?

Let's not stop at Dayenu

But we aren't stopping there. There will be field upgrades of the software, using an automated process driven by school servers. Much more existing software will be Sugarized to run in the XO user interface, and new software is appearing, some of it from the children. The community has started to look into localizing user interface sounds, not just text.

There are numerous improvements to hardware on next year's list, including the possibility of a touch screen. I can't give you a number for how much content can be licensed for free distribution on the XO or the school server, but it will be a lot. So much for quantity. Now to quality.

I'm not going to tell you that the XO is shipping bug-free. That would be silly. No computer ships bug-free. I'm about to file some bugs on keyboard layout switching and booting with USB devices plugged in myself. But the show-stopper bugs such as crashes, loss of sound, dud components from suppliers, and inability to suspend properly have been fixed, along with plenty of others. And work continues.

You can join in, whether you can develop or translate, or just have a conversation with a child. And so I invite you to join me in saying, Dayenu, Amen, Brothers and Sisters, Amen. Or whatever that comes to in Kiswahili and Mongolian.

The XO laptop is enough for us. And enough for Peru too!

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Posted on December 14, 2007 by Wayan Vota in Hardware: Production, Laptops: XO-1

olpc production line
Make more, Santa!

When I read the Wall Street Journal article about One Laptop Per Child, I had strong reactions to many aspects of the story I. But one paragraph I noted with interest, yet didn't think too much of at the time was:

Suppliers are grumbling about missed forecasts and lowered expectations. "We wish they would ship more, absolutely," says Scott Soong of Chi Mei Group, the Taiwanese manufacturer of the laptop's screen, who also serves on One Laptop's board. Laptop-maker Quanta, which was told early this year to expect initial orders of five million to eight million, also is disappointed, according to a person familiar with the matter.

"We're all frustrated with each other," says Mr. Negroponte of the friction with Quanta and suppliers. "Everybody's got a short fuse."

I figured it was just backstory to Nicholas Negroponte's long history of over-promising and under-delivering OLPC sales numbers. But the short fuse issue might be more than lowered expectations. It might just be radically low production numbers too.

From a Chinese newspaper, Digitimes gleamed this startling XO laptop production output:

Quanta Computer is expected to ship 15,000 XO PCs in December of this year and monthly shipments are expected to be around 8,000-10,000 units in the future, according to a Chinese-language Economic Daily News (EDN) report, which cited sources at component makers.
Wow! I sure hope that is a typo, that its really 100,000 computers in December, or there will be many XO-less Xmas trees this holiday season, and way too many unhappy children across the globe in 2008.

Update: Engadget is now saying that 15,000 was indeed a typo - its 150,000 XOs shipping in December, then 80k to 100k each month thereafter. Whew!

Thanks to Douglas Beagley for the tip

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Posted on December 03, 2007 by Edward Cherlin in Hardware: Production, Laptops: XO-1

The Wall Street Journal quotes Nicholas Negroponte as saying in March 2007 that by the end of the year, 3 to 5 million laptops would be sold, and 50 to 150 million in 2008. To be fair, that was when the schedule called for production to begin in June.

olpc production line
1 laptop, 2 laptop, 3...

Nevertheless, such a prediction is a fantasy. Product markets do not grow by over 1000% in a year. I predict less than half a million in 2007. At $100 million on the first few months, that would be comparable to Compaq's astounding first whole year.

We could see sales of three to five million in 2008, or up to $1 billion. Then maybe as many as 10 million in 2009. I don't think we'll hit 50 million (say, $5-10 billion, depending on the balance between price cuts and added features) before 2012.

But all that depends on whether Microsoft and Intel succeed in their full-court press against the XO and against the children of the world through gifts and deep discounting, or whether governments consider their offers on the merits, including future costs. Or whether a few more billionaires step in on one side or the other. Or the public gets activated. Therein lies the $64 billion question.

With the Give One Get One program, OLPC looks like it will take in 100,000 orders for 200,000 units by the end of the year. Uruguay and Peru are apparently ordering 150,000 in 2007, and rather more in 2008, but we have to wait for the legislative appropriation process in order to know. Reaching half a million by the end of December remains possible, but is unlikely.

Changes of government, by coup in Thailand and election in Nigeria, have apparently scuttled those countries' plans to buy XOs. Brazil can't order this year, and has a legally-mandated process to go through, requiring competitive bidding, before it can do anything in 2008. A number of other countries might place significant orders, or they might not.

Market analysis doesn't give any answers to what is essentially a question of corporate and power politics.

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Posted on November 06, 2007 by Wayan Vota in Sales Talk: G1G1, Hardware: Production, Countries: USA

Update: This is it! Today is the start of One Laptop Per Child "$100 laptop" production! Pablo Flores caught it first:
According to what Walter Bender said today in the inauguration of the OLPC Learning Workshop that is being held this week in Boston, right in this moment is starting the mass production of XO laptops. Initially, it is expected to have a production of 15,000 laptops per week, which will be accelerated afterwards.
Quanta Computer is in fact building XO computers:
And no matter if Mary Lou Jepsen questions the very concept of high-volume computer assembly, check out who is on the Changshu XO-1 mass production assembly line.

I do hope production does ramp up quickly. Today I called the toll-free G1G1 number: 1-877-70-LAPTOP and found out when OLPC's telemarketers are going to start taking XO-1 sales orders. She says they will start taking XO laptop sales orders starting at 8pm Eastern Standard Time.

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Posted on October 30, 2007 by Wayan Vota in Hardware: Production, Countries: Uruguay

olpc uruguay
Christmas sharing in Uruguay?
Now that Walter Bender clarified OLPC's software development schedule, Ship.1 (Build 623; Firmware Q2D03) will happen in time to "Sugarize" OLPC Uruguay by Christmas, there is still the question around XO-1 production delays that could effect the size of One Laptop Per Child's initial delivery size and timing to Uruguay.

If you believe OLPC press releases then it could be 100,000 laptops which are rolling off assembly lines in October. But if you look to Uruguay's El Pais newspaper you get a whole other impression:
On November 12 the company Qantas in Shanghai, China, will begin to produce computers for the Plan Ceibal. The first wave is 5,000 units.

The Laboratorio Tecnológico del Uruguay (LATU) hopes that the first laptops come to Montevideo before finishing November. Manufacturers are not so sure this is possible, and point to the first half of December, but the issue will be subject to final negotiation of the contract between the LATU and the company won the tender, Brightstar Uruguay.
Now Pablo Flores clarifies that OLPC Uruguay hopes to reach about 10,000 or 20,000 XO laptops, enough for a full rollout to Florida's 8,000 children and mighty good start towards full 1:1 computer penetration in Uruguay.

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Posted on October 24, 2007 by Wayan Vota in Sales Talk: Competition, Sales Talk: Intel, Hardware: Production, Laptops: XO-1

olpc xo sales
XO-1 production results
Remember when we learned that XO-1 laptop production delayed again and George Snell tried to tell us that:
The Reuters story has been corrected. The project has not been delayed. We are still on target for production to begin in October with distribution to begin to countries in November.
Well we now have further confirmation of a delay in Qauanta's production of olpc computers. Reuters is reporting that One Laptop Per Child XO computer assembly is now slated to begin by 12 November:
"We had some last-minute bugs. We've resolved them," [Mary Lou Jepsen] said in a recent interview, adding that the group expected to produce 100,000 laptops this year.

An October launch would have given the group time to produce and ship tens of thousands of laptops to Peru and Uruguay, the first two countries to order the laptops. It would now be tough to get those laptops to South America by December, in time for kids to use them over their summer vacation, and also meet orders for the foundation's Give 1 Get 1 scheme for people in the United States and Canada, she said.
Its not only the G1G1 program that is threatened by this delay. The whole low-cost laptop market is now getting more crowded by the day.

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Posted on October 22, 2007 by Wayan Vota in People: Leadership, Hardware: Power Supply, Hardware: Production, Laptops: XO-1


OLPC Laptop Physical Design
Congratulations to Mary Lou Jepsen! In what I consider to be a under-celebrated achievement of One Laptop Per Child's Chief Technology Officer, she has succeed in designing one environmentally friendly laptop per child.

By combining the XO computer's power management, including the LiFePo4 battery, with its highly rugged yet low toxicity case, she earned an amazing triple play:
The XO laptop has earned the highest environmental certifications: it is in full compliance with the European Union’s rigorous RoHS(a) standards; it has qualified for Energy Star 4.0 Category A (the most stringent ranking); and it has received the US PC and notebook environmental ratings agency EPEAT Gold(b) rating, one of only eight laptop computers to do so.
In fact, the last we heard Mary Lou was working on a take-back policy with Quanta Computer so that no XO laptop will end up in a landfill - anywhere.

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Posted on September 14, 2007 by Wayan Vota in Commentary: Press, Hardware: Production, Laptops: XO-1

drunk coding
Another production delay explanation
One Laptop Per Child can't get a break today. First they admit that the XO-1 laptop cost is now $188-$205 dollars per computer, double the original "$100 laptop" marketing slogan, casting doubts on OLPC's pricing ability.

Then, Jim Finke reports that OLPC has postponed Quanta Computer's XO assembly:
Production, which was slated to begin this month, has been postponed to November so that the group can work out bugs in the final beta version of the green-and-white laptops, said foundation spokesman George Snell.

Some 40,000 units will be produced in November, then about 80,000 the following month, he said.
Now the cynic in me wants to say that the production delay is not related to an unfinished Sugar user interface, as the OLPC developers are a very gifted lot. I would rather make the case that both the increase in price and delay in production are related to the lack of government buyers.

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Posted on August 31, 2007 by Wayan Vota in Sales Talk: Countries, Hardware: Production, Countries: USA

olpc $100 laptop
OLPC Production Line
Why did Quanta Computer start production of One Laptop Per Child's "$100 laptop", the XO-1, when Nicholas Negroponte's promised 10 million units dropped to 1 million units, with only 250,000 confimed sold.

I assumed that Michael Wang, Quanta's outgoing President, was looking at developing commercial versions of our favorite low-cost laptop, based on his previous comments around OLPC XO USA sales. But with his departure, I wondered if that idea would hold.

EMS Now is reporting that the idea is not only holding through Wang's departure, Quanta may even be looking to sell XO laptop variants outside of the One Laptop Per Child organization:

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Posted on August 14, 2007 by Wayan Vota in Hardware: Production, Sales Talk: Products, Hardware: Screen

Do you remember Mary Lou Jepsen's OLPC product roadmap, where she hinted at XO technologies spreading out into commercial laptops in 2008? Well it looks like Toshiba might be a little ahead of One Laptop Per Child in commercializing the innovative dual mode screen if you read the Portégé R500 press release:
toshiba olpc
The Portégé R500 Series is the world’s first notebook computer to incorporate a widescreen 12.1-inch indoor/outdoor transreflective LED backlit display. This unique innovation is ideal for usage in virtually any type of lighting condition, including direct sunlight. Indoors, the LED backlit display produces an image, rich in color saturation and superb quality. Outdoors, the transreflective screen uses natural sunlight to bring the display’s colors and images to life.
Doesn't that 1,280 x 800 WXGA display sound suspiciously like the Jepsen-design screen that Chi Mei Optoelectronics (CMO) has an exclusive manufacturing licensee to produce?

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Posted on July 25, 2007 by Jon Camfield in Sales Talk: Countries, Commentary: Press, Hardware: Production, Laptops: XO-1

olpc christmas
A OLPC USA Christmas?
Thanks no doubt to the planned US commercial OLPC sales, the production preparations for the OLPC have begun! The BBC reports that:
Hardware suppliers have been given the green light to ramp-up production of all of the components needed to build millions of the low-cost machines. Previously, the organisation behind the scheme said that it required orders for 3m laptops to make production viable.
The BBC article hedges on two points - the magnitude of the order and who's buying. It hints at the 3 million number, but previous statements are not solid numbers, as we've bounced around 5 and 10 million laptop order numbers not that long ago. Reuters via eWeek coverage provides a more solid number and more insight into the need for the commercial market to buoy the development market:

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Posted on July 23, 2007 by Guest Writer in Countries: Peru, Hardware: Production, Prototypes: XO

Like proud parents bringing home their new baby, team members at the Peruvian OLPC project filmed the arrival of their new BTest-4 XO computer and posted it on YouTube for our viewing pleasure. On a second video, the proud parents did a side-by-side comparison of their new B4 with their old B2. I'm Alec McLure and I have a synopsis and some thoughts on both videos.

In the first video, very reminiscent of Christmas morning home movies, a beaming Alfonso de la Guarda unpacks the obviously solidly packed laptop 2-pack.
An interesting point, he mentions that this time around the customs charges were "only" $66 (apparently when they brought in the previous machine duties were over $150!). South American bureaucracy being what it is, they lucked out this time around. Personally, I'm impressed they were able to get it through customs without multiple visits. I'd also be curious as to what cost basis customs is using to calculate duties.

First out of the box are the chargers and batteries in their own little tray. Although he compares the charger to the previous version, he doesn't remark on any very obvious changes at this point.

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Posted on July 20, 2007 by Robert B. Kozma in Commentary: Academia, People: Negroponte, Hardware: Production

olpc robert kozma
Students in Latin America
Prior to becoming an independent consultant, advising government and non-governmental agencies and corporations on the use of technology to support developing countries, I was a professor and research scientist for thirty years.

I did a considerable amount of research on the impact of technology on teaching and learning. I also developed educational software for the Macintosh. Consequently, I can attest that empirical data are the sin qua non of both scientific research and engineering design.

Scientists posit their theories as testable hypotheses and conduct experiments to validate their propositions. Engineers design artifacts to achieve goals or solve problems. They test out these designs on a small scale and refine them before implementing on a large scale. Collecting test data is a standard practices in both fields.

But apparently Professor Negroponte doesn't follow these standard engineering or scientific practices, at least when it comes to OLPC. Without the benefit of a single study in support of their efficacy, Professor Negroponte feels that developing nations should spend hundreds of millions of dollars to purchase millions of XO computers to hand out to its students.

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Posted on June 27, 2007 by Wayan Vota in Implementation: Maintenance, Hardware: Production

olpc icon
OLPC XO Bake Test
While you might be feeling the heat of summer, the One Laptop Per Child team is putting the XO computer through its paces with two extreme tests of its durability to guarantee its successful usage with children in the developing world.

The first test is subjecting the OLPC XO to extremes of heat. Funny enough, I know a little bit about building computers to withstand high heat environments. In my day job I helped with the creation of a desert computer that would work in the Sahel - the edge of the Sahara desert beyond Timbuktu.

We developed a computer that could run at 50C (122F) reasonably well but it was no Children's Machine XO. It wasn't subjected to the computer torture that Mary Lou Jepsen is inflicting on a hapless BTest-3 machine.

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Posted on June 25, 2007 by Wayan Vota in Prototypes: OLPC, Hardware: Production

olpc icon
OLPC XO BTest-3 in use
Have you seen the One Laptop Per Child computers in the wild? The BTest-3 Children's Machine XO that arrived mid-May at OLPC headquarters and incorporates swank new features like:
A clean line on the battery housing and thinned out plastic on the front bezel for "glowing" camera and microphone "in-use" indicators. Improvements for robustness include: a steel plate in the keyboard area; a smaller battery cavity; rubber "bunny ears", thicker bumpers and ribbing made out of pure polycarbonate, a longer keyboard cable, and a water resistance in touch-pad area.

Improvements for usage include: increased display tilt; improved keyboard feel and responsiveness; improved touch-pad responsiveness; a gray bezel around the display; improved fit and finish of the buttons; X and O indicators on the touch-pad buttons
For me and many others, the most prominent new feature is the brightly colored XO on the back cover of the laptop that has 400 unique XO color combinations. This big XO is much louder than personalizing stickers and really makes the OLPC XO stand out in the classroom.

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Posted on June 11, 2007 by Wayan Vota in Hardware: Peripherals, Hardware: Power Supply, Hardware: Production, Sales Talk: Products, Internet: Routers, Hardware: School Servers, Hardware: Wireless

gang charger
OLPC multi-battery "gang charger"
In this weekend's , OLPC VP Walter Bender casually drops an OLPC product lineup bombshell:
We are shipping five products this fall: (1) the XO laptop; (2) a school server; (3) a multi-battery charger; (4) an active antenna; and (5) a solar-powered WiFi repeater. Much of the emphasis has been on the laptop, but a push from Quanta this week has resulted in firmer plans for the other products.
While we are all intimately familiar with the OLPC XO, what are the other four "products" that Water speaks of? The last time we checked,
school servers were still very much an idea or barely Beta, and now they're going to be production ready?

The multi-battery charger, or "gang charger" is even more mysterious. There is a basic Wiki entry, and now a photograph, but not much else.

Walter tells us about the active antenna for the first time in the very same update:
Thanks to John Watlington and the team from Cozybit, we have out first working "active antenna" prototypes. Attaching them to an XO lets you optimize the placement of the antenna: use with a mesh portal will double the network throughput. They can be used on the school servers or attached a 5V power supply to build a stand-alone WiFI repeater.
Luckily, thanks to Aaron Kaplan, we now know more about the solar mesh repeaters, but that was only last week.

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Posted on June 04, 2007 by Wayan Vota in Sales Talk: Countries, Hardware: Production, Prototypes: XO

olpc negroponte
Nicholas Negroponte of OLPC
Do you know the significance of this week for One Laptop Per Child? Do you anticipate an OLPC proclamation by Nicholas Negroponte? Specifically, did you remember that last Thursday we passed an important deadline for the OLPC XO? If not, let me refresh your memory. In Nicholas Negroponte's OLPC Analyst Meeting presentation, he said:
"...the countries were told just a few minutes ago in the other room, May 30th is their deadline. That's the first deadline, and you know this isn't a sales and marketing job where you know when you come you come. This is it, the train leaves. It's looking like a closing, you know if you're having a round of funding, it closes on such and such a date. If it's over-subscribed, it's over-subscribed. If it's under-subscribed you shoot yourself, or whatever. The point is, it has a real date. We'll all know May 30th"
And now it's June 4th and we still don't know who will be in the first round of participating countries.

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Posted on May 16, 2007 by Wayan Vota in People: Leadership, Hardware: Production

olpc $100 laptop
OLPC XO production in September?
Woohoo! Could this be true? Could I be reading this China Post news story right? Did Michail Bletsas, Chief Connectivity Officer of One Laptop Per Child just confirm that Nicholas Negroponte has finally succeeded in reaching his OLPC XO production "trigger" - confirmed orders for 3 million Children's Machines?!
Quanta will make 40,000 notebooks a month for the One Laptop project from Sept. 22, Michail Bletsas, a network design executive at the charity, said Monday in Taipei… Quanta will increase production to 400,000 units a month by the end of the year, Bletsas said on the sidelines of an industry conference. Each laptop costs US$175 to make, with expenses to fall to US$100 by the end of 2008, he said. Three million will be made in the first round of production, Bletsas said.
After all the hard work on clock-stopping hot technology, hand-wringing about operating systems, and the nail-biting suspense around participating countries, might congratulations are in order for the entire OLPC Leadership for all their hard work and dedication to reach this great milestone for the One Laptop Per Child program and one-to-one computing in education?