Intel Classmate PC Sales to Surpass XO in 2009?!

   
   
   
   
   

In the OLPC Overivew (pdf), I calculated from all the numbers floating about that One Laptop Per Child has shipped a cumulative 750,000 XO laptops worldwide through March 2009, give or take a few thousand.

While that's impressive for a start-up nonprofit that didn't have a working prototype until -2007, Digitimes is reporting that Intel shipped 700,000 Classmate PC's in 2008 alone. But a tie game in laptop distribution is not a shocker - Intel's prediction that it will sell over two million Classmate PCs in 2009 is:


Classmate sales looking up!
Intel has forecast that its Classmate PC shipments in 2009 will break two million units, surging from 700,000 units in 2008, according to sources at notebook vendors. Currently, Intel is aggressively trying to cut into rural areas in China partnering with local vendor Haier, and has also landed procurement orders from emerging markets in Europe and Southeastern Asia.

It seems Intel may be succeeding where OLPC failed - China. From the start, OLPC has eyed China and India as the two real keys to its $100 laptop goal. And from the start, both countries rebuffed offers for computer-enabled learning. India's OLPC backstory was easy to read, they're not too keen on another Negroponte-led adventure. But China's resistance to XO laptops is harder to parse.

Maybe its the view that they could design an build an XO themselves, without the need for OLPC. The XO is already made in Changshu. Maybe it was Sugar, the Chinese wanting a more Asian-centric operating system. Or maybe it was basic Chinese pride in their own educational system. Who needs Constructivism when you have 2,000 of Confucian educational excellence?

Right now, OLPC needs another hit. They need a big sale. If Intel takes the marketing lead with a significant Chinese order, we'll need more than ad men in black to save the day.

Classmate Update

Intel just unveiled the Kaleidoscope HCQ 890 Tablet PC from Hanvon, China's leading manufacturer of character recognition technology. Based on the Classmate clam shell design, with Chinese-language software and a Longman dictionary for practicing English. You can read the press release here.

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9 Comments

add the announced 50.000 Classmates for Bolivia.
http://www.la-razon.com/versiones/20080312_006209/nota_250_561811.htm
50 were delivered, even though 100 promised the day before. A hint of things to come?
http://www.la-razon.com/versiones/20080314_006211/nota_245_562906.htm

notice that content will be provided by Skool
http://www.la-razon.com/versiones/20080311_006208/nota_250_561276.htm
Well worth a visit as the Intel source of educational content for Spanish speaking countries (I did check the calendar, and this was NOT published April 1st)
http://www.skool.es

Exactly where are these deployments of hundreds of thousands of Classmates ? It seems like most of that 700K were sold through normal retail channels. You should be comparing Intel's sales figures with Asus' and HP's, not OLPC's.


John,

I'll note that XO was available retail - twice in fact. G1G1 2007 & 2008. Its OLPC's fault if they couldn't figure out how to continue the retail channel, not Intel's for exploiting it.

John has an excellent point, Wayan, I think you owe him an apology, your data is obviously skewed, this is totally unfair.

Now, if XOs were available through normal retail channels, then we could compare, isn't it, John?

Speaking of which, John, why do you think XOs are not available through retail channels?

add the announced 50.000 Classmates for Bolivia.
http://www.la-razon.com/versiones/20080312_006209/nota_250_561811.htm
50 were delivered, even though 100 promised the day before. A hint of things to come?

notice that content will be provided by Skool
http://www.la-razon.com/versiones/20080311_006208/nota_250_561276.htm
Well worth a visit as the Intel source of educational content for Spanish speaking countries (I did check the calendar, and this was NOT published April 1st)
http://www.skool.es

In one sense Intel's success is a failure for olpc, in another it is a success. Remember, NN's goal is not to make lots of money selling netbooks, it is to spread computerized education in the developing world.

I do assume, though, that he is disappointed that the Intel education computers run programs implementing an instructionist model.

add 250.000 Classmates for Argentina

http://www.lanacion.com.ar/nota.asp?nota_id=1118352

Meanwhile Rodrigo Arboleda, OLPC President and CEO for Latin America and the Caribbean and MIT researcher, likens the Uruguayan project to a "vaccine against ignorance". http://www.lanacion.com.ar/nota.asp?nota_id=1116717
Interestingly, the word "Ceibal" is not used.

All these Classmates with Windows into the hands of children!

I am very curious how this works out. Anyone doing an evaluation?

Winter

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