Tomorrow's CES Speech Today: What Will Negroponte Say?

   
   
   
   
   
olpc negroponte
What will Negroponte say now?

Now that an Intel XO-2 is dead, what do you think will be Nicholas Negroponte's Industry Insider address at International CES?

I think his speech on the role of technology in economic development could still be shocking - he should announce that OLPC has achieved the mythical "$100 laptop" price point.

How? First, OLPC just announced that G1G1 raised $35 million dollars with the sale of 162,000 X0 laptops - half (81,000) destined for Haiti, Rwanda, Cambodia, Mongolia, Afghanistan.

Then note who is speaking with Negroponte, His Excellency Paul Kagame, President of the Republic of Rwanda. And now let's put two and two together to get what is before us.

If Rwanda agrees to buy 50,000 laptops at $200 each, and OLPC donates 50,000 laptops to Rwanda for free, Rwandan children will get 100,000 XO-1's for $100 each with brilliant marketing for everyone involved!

My prediction on the headlines:

  • OLPC Finally Delivers $100 Laptops to Rwanda
  • Rwanda President Gets Best Laptop Price for His People
Now what's yours?

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26 Comments

You must be getting lightheaded in anticipation of coming nuptuals,

The way this blog entry is worded, it sounds like they announced the availability of the XO-2, which probably would be a huge shock to everyone. Rather, the XO-2 is not "out" (as in available), its DOA...

Good catch Gabe, Vamoose was right, getting all sidetracked by the whole wedding thing. I've edited the post to be clear: there is no Intel XO-2.

If you sell $100 laptops to Nigeria, you'll just get more emails that go like:

DEAR KIND SIR!!

I AM THE RT HON. Constable Thaddeus Nabudike-Morgan, and I represent the estate of my grandmama - recently 1,000,000 was being deposited in bank but we can't get the money and need......blah blah blah....

"If you sell $100 laptops to Nigeria, you'll just get more emails that go like:"

So we should deny Nigerian children internet access? And education?

Most Spam still originates in the USA, as far as I can remember.

Winter

I also attend CES and maybe you are right... but maybe we'll hear more info regarding current achievements.
Or more abot Give 1 Get 1?
Or about project for educating children in more developed countries?

We'll see.

It would be nice if we heard: "Well, okay, the XO2 appears to be dead in the water so I have another idea, why not let's start all over again with this $20 Lightbook Reader thing I heard about the other day, it looks as though we wouldn't need any "help" from MicroSoft or Intel or anybody we could just go ahead and do it . . . . ?

But I'm not sitting on my thumbs.

Martin

"It would be nice if we heard: "Well, okay, the XO2 appears to be dead in the water so I have another idea, why not let's start all over again with this $20 Lightbook Reader thing I heard about the other day, it looks as though we wouldn't need any "help" from MicroSoft or Intel or anybody we could just go ahead and do it . . . . ?"

Sorry Martin, but as your lightbook won't run windows and doesn't contain Intel chips, you will encounter the same resistance.

Moreover, the OLPC wants to give more to the children than just books. They want to give them email, IM, and lots of creative programs.

But I would buy a $20 lightbook from you if I can use it with the contents of the Gutenberg project, and whatever book I download from the net (ie, PDF2Lightbook).

Winter

I hope he slams Intel and puts them to shame for good. Intel isn't interested in marketing cheap laptops in developping countries or developped countries. The only thing Intel is interested in, is to stop OLPC from taking over the worldwide PC/Laptop market and giving AMD and other processor manufacturers much more influence on the future trends in the PC/Laptop industry.

Truth is, we are currently ruled by an Intel/Microsoft monopoly in terms of which X86 hardware/software platform should be the standard in the industry.

Now that a much cheaper X86 paltform is being introduced by OLPC consuming 5 times less power than a conventional Intel/Microsoft machine, this can change a whole Industry over the course of a very few months and Intel does not want that to happen.

Winter --

"Moreover, the OLPC wants to give more to the children than just books. They want to give them email, IM, and lots of creative programs." Well, let's hope they can figure out how to do it on solar power?

I intend to add some conversion programs to the 'creating' part of Illumination, among which --- given the world-wide prevalence of PDF files -- I'll include your suggested "PDF2Lightbook" routine. And "Gutenberg2Lightbook" already exists inside Illumination, since the Gutenberg books are (sensibly) straight text files (I think?) and "ASCII2Lightbook" is a breeze.
----------
But to do this 'on the fly' inside the Lightbook itself won't be possible, because it won't connect to the Internet --- a major advantage, it's my feeling, rather than a disadvantage.

Cheers, Martin

Charbax,

I seriously hope Negroponte will further ignore Intel and Microsoft as much as possible. Whining is bad for your credibillity.

If he has evidence of foul play, he should present it. Else, just outdo them in marketting. Mary-Lou's interview does more to dammage Intel than anything Negroponte can say. She hits them where it hurts: In their technological credibillity.

Winter

"Mary-Lou's interview does more to dammage Intel than anything Negroponte can say."

Have to agree with that - for those who haven't read it yet:

"...

Q: The world is now very aware of the spoiler role that apparently Intel tried to play. Can you though talk to us about the differences technically between the Classmate and the XO?

Mary Lou Jepsen: Where to start: Classmate is more expensive, consumes 10 times the power, has 1/3 the wifi range, and can't be used outside. Also, the Classmate doesn't use neighboring laptops to extend the reach of the internet via hopping (mesh-networking) like the XO does. So not only is the XO cheaper than the Classmate, the XO requires less infrastructre expenditure for electricity and for internet access. In Peru we can run off of solar during the day and handcrank at night for an additional $25 or so per student – this is one-time expense – the solar panel and the crank will last 10 or perhaps 20 years. Just try running electricity cables up and down the Peruvian Andes for that cost while making sure it's environmentally clean energy. The Classmate isn't as durable as the XO, and its screen is about 30% smaller, the batteries are the type that can explode and only last 1-2 years and can't be removed by the user and harm the environment. The batteries are expensive to replace: $30-40 per replacement. The XO batteries last for 5 years and cost less than $10 to replace. Finally, the XO is the greenest laptop ever made, the Classmate isn't – this matters a great deal when one proposes to put millions of them in the developing world.
..."

Interview with OLPC's Founding CTO Mary Lou Jepsen
( http://www.groklaw.net/article.php?story=20080107182525297 )

Negroponte will say the Intel is welcome back in bed with OLPC and that running Windows is the key to success for the XO. The usual anti-Intel, anti-Microsoft crowd of Negroponte followers will silently swallow the bitter pill and life will go on...stay tuned.


http://www.pcadvisor.co.uk/news/index.cfm?newsid=11786


One Laptop Per Child Project (OLPC) and Microsoft are developing a dual-boot system to put both Linux and Windows on laptops.


"We are working with them [Microsoft developers] very closely to make a dual-boot system so that, like on an Apple, you can boot either one up. The version that's up and running of Windows on the XO is very fast, it's very, very successful. We're working very hard to do both," said Nicholas Negroponte, chairman of OLPC.

See our CES 2008 Blog for more news from the Consumer Electronics Show

It's a brand new development for the XO laptops, as the low-cost notebooks are known, and came about because of Microsoft's friendlier attitude towards open-source software.

Microsoft has embraced the open source community over the past few years in a very different way than before, Negroponte said.

"And that really helps, because it's become a little bit less religious than it was a few years ago and that's really good. In the end, I think, the more people that have software and hardware out there, the better."

"One Laptop Per Child Project (OLPC) and Microsoft are developing a dual-boot system to put both Linux and Windows on laptops."

That would indeed be a bombshell anouncement.

It would also require a considerable increase in memory (SD card?). What gets me wondering is whether they succeeded in getting XP crippled on it or whether they use CE. It would also allow us to see how much faster and easier to use Windows is on the XO.

Anyhow, the B&M Gates foundation has enough money to buy every child on the planet 8GB SD cards. And I never really believed MS would allow Linux in the hands of so many children. With $5B/month of profit on stake, there is some leverage to use.

I am looking foreward to the aplause from the original sponsors of the OLPC, eg, RedHat and Google.

Winter

Negroponte is smarter than his followers.

He realizes the strategic advantages of having Intel and Microsoft as perceived collaborators, because it gives his project a chance to survive.

In the end, it doesn't matter how good or bad it all is for the XO or the OLPC Project. What matters is the number of units sold, and Negroponte would go to bed with Satan himself if that means there will be "One Laptop Per Little Devil" in hell.

After all, it is not like his dumb geeky followers will ever question any of his moves...

"One Laptop Per Child Project (OLPC) and Microsoft are developing a dual-boot system to put both Linux and Windows on laptops."

Now I think of it. This must be not completely accurate. It would be completely idotic to load two OS's on the limited memory available.

What is possible is that Windows is supplied on a separate SD card. The boot process should then switch over to the SD card.

Given that no MS OS has mesh networking nor a raw flash file-system, there would be serious problems getting a working software stack on the XO. However, Sugar runs all activities inside a virtualization server.

Maybe, just maybe, windows XP is added as a low level activity that runs on top of a virtualization layer, taking over the screen. However, as the screen cannot be taken over normally (for security reasons) it must have some extremely low level hooks.

But we will only know when someone from INSIDE the OLPC can comment on all this dual-boot fog. We have seen some examples of pretty lousy journalism in the past.

Winter

Irvin:
"He realizes the strategic advantages of having Intel and Microsoft as perceived collaborators, because it gives his project a chance to survive."

Indeed. He is really a good marketeer. Without him, the children of the developing world would not have stood a chance.

The word "Perceived" is important here.

If the govenments of the world see that Negroponte is willing to stab both Intel and MS in the back (just as they want to do to him), they will recieve him with open arms as a man who means bussiness. As one of them.

And the sentences above were written without a grain of sarcasm.

Winter

Winter wrote:

"This must be not completely accurate. It would be completely idotic to load two OS's on the limited memory available."

"But we will only know when someone from INSIDE the OLPC can comment on all this dual-boot fog. We have seen some examples of pretty lousy journalism in the past."


Yep, it's the journalist's fault. He put words in Negroponte's mouth. He probably made the whole thing up ;-)

I just wrote that the dumb Negroponte followers would never question any of his moves, no matter how offensive to them, and less than a minute later we get this jewel that proves my point.

I predict the next attack will be on me, for pointing out the obvious. Yes, I'm bad...

Irvin wrote:
"Yep, it's the journalist's fault. He put words in Negroponte's mouth. He probably made the whole thing up ;-)"
"I predict the next attack will be on me, for pointing out the obvious. Yes, I'm bad..."

Why Irvin. You just pointed to an article. I even don't mind you gloating.

If a journalist writes something that is not possible, eg, a car running on water, I would like to hear from the source what they actually said, eg, it was hydrogen. And in this case, it is quite possible that Negroponte is as clueless as the journalist, so I would like to here from someone from the OLPC who actually knows her or his technology and has actually SEEN what happened.

There is no room in the current XO for two OS's. It is that simple.

To deliver dual boot laptops, they would need up to 8GB storage. But that would be a complete waste of storage space. Furthermore, for a lot of the technology, there is no Microsoft counterpart.

Therefore, I guessed that MS would use the SD slot to plug in a bootable card. Moreover, they could use Linux virtualization to run their OS (XP crippled or CE) on top of Linux. Virtualization would give MS access to the Linux drivers for the alien hardware.

But this is really complete guesswork.

What I do know is that you should NEVER believe a journalist on her or his word. It is always hearsay that should be corroborated by independend sources. Especially as the original words came from someone who himself is not always that well informed about the technological details.

Winter

Winter wrote:

"And in this case, it is quite possible that Negroponte is as clueless as the journalist, "

"What I do know is that you should NEVER believe a journalist on her or his word. It is always hearsay that should be corroborated by independend sources. Especially as the original words came from someone who himself [Negroponte] is not always that well informed about the technological details"

ROTFLMAO!

Is it possible that the "clueless" one is you? Negroponte *IS* OLPC. There is no chance in hell he wouldn't know what he is talking about.

One more jewel proving my point that the followers will question anyone or anything, except their leader.

Truly amazing!

Irvin wrote:
"Is it possible that the "clueless" one is you? Negroponte *IS* OLPC. There is no chance in hell he wouldn't know what he is talking about."

If anybody ever *WAS* the OLPC, it was Mary-Lou.

Now she has gone, there is a team working of some dozen(s) of people. I have asked what Negroponte's role was before, and got: "Marketting" as the answer. This would not be the first time that Negroponte was corrected on technical matters.

Anyhow, nowhere did I doubt that your "source" was not true, although you seem to expect that for some reason. Just that the text did not make sense technically.

I tried to interpret it in a way that could make sense, but maybe you didn't understand what I was writing? If so, I could try to explain it in more simple terms.

And how did you get the impression that I see Negroponte as my leader? What would that mean anyway? I must have written some awkward English somewhere to cause such an unintended impression.

Winter

Winter wrote:

"If anybody ever *WAS* the OLPC, it was Mary-Lou."

If (big IF) you truly believe that, then you need to need to investigate what OLPC is, how it originated, who created it, who makes the decisions, etc., in order to comment from a position of knowledge. Otherwise, you risk making the colossal errors and silly statements pointed out in this thread.

Negroponte is OLPC. OLPC is Negroponte.

Mary Lou Jepsen was an EMPLOYEEE, getting a salary. A VERY important employee, a key employee, but an employee nevertheless. She is gone. Negroponte stays, because OLPC is his creation, his vision (however distorted that vision might be), his baby. Negroponte decides what is done, what is not done (haven't you noticed how every newspaper article has Negroponte's name on it?)

Now that you know who is who, now that you know the "clueless" one (your words - not mine) was you and not Negroponte or the journalist, what do you think of his plans?

"Negroponte is OLPC. OLPC is Negroponte."

Bush is the USA, the USA is Bush! Do I understand this correctly?

"Mary Lou Jepsen was an EMPLOYEEE, getting a salary. A VERY important employee, a key employee, but an employee nevertheless."

I can imagine an XO without Negroponte, but not one without Mary-Lou. And, as far as I understood, so did the suppliers and the other partners. I have always had the impression that you didn't really appreciate (ore even understood) the technology and design work done by the OLPC.

You seem to be one of quite a number of OLPCnews commenters (if this is indeed a plural) who are completely obsessed by Negroponte. Journalists are paid to write simple stories focussing on caricature personalities. But you seem to do it for fun.

But just try, maybe you can convince me that Negroponte really designed and constructed it all?

Winter

winter wrote:

"I can imagine an XO without Negroponte, but not one without Mary-Lou."

"You seem to be one of quite a number of OLPCnews commenters (if this is indeed a plural) who are completely obsessed by Negroponte. Journalists are paid to write simple stories focussing on caricature personalities. But you seem to do it for fun. "

Confirms my previous statements: anything , except legitimate, honest questioning of the leader's decisions by the followers. It's better to attack the messenger.

No further comments are necessary.

"Confirms my previous statements: anything , except legitimate, honest questioning of the leader's decisions by the followers. It's better to attack the messenger."

Are you refering to Mary-Lou?

Indeed I don't question her. And I still insist you seem to misunderstand her part in the OLPC.

But to say that I am a follower of Mary-Lou Jepsen? I wouldn't feel worthy.

Winter

"buy 50,000 laptops at $200 each, and OLPC donates 50,000 laptops to Rwanda for free, Rwandan children will get 100,000 XO-1's for $100"

I'm no accountant but the above quote strikes me funny. While this may make the apparent cost of each XO $100 to Rwanda it does not in actuality make the XO cost $100. OLPC is eating half the cost. These machines still ultimately cost a total of almost $200 per unit. This is a smoke and mirrors way of getting to the fictional price mark.

I like Martins idea...now lets start on core literacy with his inexpensive book reader.

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